Statistical analysis of three data sources for Covid-19 monitoring in Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany (preprint)

In Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany, a system of three data sources has been established to track the Covid-19 pandemic. These sources are the number of Covid-19-related hospitalizations, the Covid-19 genecopies in wastewater, and the prevalence derived from a cohort study. This paper presents an extensive comparison of these parameters. It is investigated whether wastewater data and a cohort study can be valid surrogate parameters for the number of hospitalizations and thus serve as predictors for coming Covid-19 waves. We observe that this is possible in general for the cohort study prevalence, while the wastewater data suffer from a too large variability to make quantitative predictions by a purely data-driven approach. However, the wastewater data as well as the cohort study prevalence are able to detect hospitalizations waves in a qualitative manner. Furthermore, a detailed comparison of different normalization techniques of wastewater data is provided.

Selenium Deficiency is Associated with Mortality Risk from COVID-19 (preprint)

SARS-CoV-2 infections underlie the current Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and are causative for a high death toll particularly among elderly subjects and those with comorbidities. Selenium (Se) is an essential trace element of high importance for human health and particularly for a well-balanced immune response. Mortality risk from severe disease like sepsis or polytrauma is inversely related to Se status. We hypothesized that this relation also applies to COVID-19. Serum samples (n=166) from COVID-19 patients (n=33) were collected consecutively and analysed for total Se by X-ray fluorescence and selenoprotein P (SELENOP) by a validated ELISA. Both biomarkers showed the expected strong correlation (r=0.7758, p<0.001), pointing to an insufficient Se status for optimal selenoprotein expression. In comparison to reference data from a European cross sectional analysis (EPIC, n=1915), the patients showed a pronounced deficit in total serum Se (mean±SD, 50.8±15.7 vs. 84.4±23.4 µg/L) and SELENOP (3.0±1.4 vs. 4.3±1.0 mg/L). A Se status below the 2.5th percentile of the reference population, i.e., [Se] < 45.7 µg/L and [SELENOP] < 2.56 mg/L was present in 43.4% and 39.2% of COVID samples, respectively. The Se status was significantly higher in samples from surviving COVID patients as compared to non-survivors (Se; 53.3±16.2 vs. 40.8±8.1 µg/L, SELENOP; 3.3±1.3 vs. 2.1±0.9 mg/L). We conclude that Se status analysis in COVID patients provides diagnostic information. However, causality remains unknown due to the observational nature of this study. Nevertheless, the findings strengthen the notion on a relevant role of Se for COVID convalescence, and support the discussion on adjuvant Se supplementation in severely diseased and Se-deficient patients.